Just curious if anyone out there has a prediction they would like to share as to how the 2004 hiking season will be? From what I understand, the 2003 season was especially moist.
I think it is going to be a mild winter overall and, like 2003, another unusally wet season.
Dawg
DAWGTREKKER
I just looked up the overview for the 2004 Farmer’s Almanac, which is usually pretty accurate.
Here’s what it says:
(Southeast: GA, NC, TN)
Temperatures in March will be two degrees milder than normal, on average. Expect drier than normal weather in the north and wetter than normal weather in the south, especially in the southeast
April and May will be warmer than normal, with near-normal rainfall in April, then heavy rains in the southeast during May.
(Mid Atlantic: VA, MD, PA)
The summer will be hotter than normal, with near-normal rain in the west and above-normal rainfall in the east. Expect record heat in mid- to late June and almost anytime in August, which will be the hottest on record.
(NY, NJ)
Overall, the summer will be hot and wet, despite a dry June with near-normal temperatures. Temperatures will continue near normal in July, but heavy thunderstorms will bring double the normal rainfall. After thunderstorms in early August, expect the worst heat wave in several years, with oppressive heat and humidity into midmonth.
(New England: CT, MA, VT, NH, ME)
After a fairly normal June and July, August will be much hotter than usual, with oppressively high humidity in the first half of the month. Other hot periods will occur in early and late June and mid-July.
Hot weather will continue in early September, with warm days in much of the month, followed by near-normal temperatures in October. September will be fairly dry, but October will have above-normal rainfall.
BearBait
Ouch! Sounds like it’s going to be a tough one next year–hot and wet! Aaaghhhh, Just what the AT ordered…
Dawg
DAWGTREKKER
As an Atmospheric Science researcher, I’ll be the first to admit how little seasonal forecasting ability there is in winter and spring temperature and precipitation forecasting. But, we have a similar setup to last year, in that temperatures in the tropical central Pacific are quite warm compared to normal, leftover from last year’s El Nino event. When there are warm sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific, it is often reflected as a positive Pacific-North American Pattern. This pattern means a cool, wet winter and early spring in the southeast. In general, this pattern does not extend up the eastern seaboard, but last year it did, bringing lots of rain all the way up and down the East Coast.
So, I guess my forecast is a for a cool, wet spring in the southeast. North of Harper’s Ferry, I’d say to expect near-normal precipitation with slightly above-average temps. There is absolutely no skill in forecasting summer conditions this far in advance, so I won’t even try. I hope this helps.
Superfeet
I wouldn’t fret about it. You’re gonna have rain, thunder, lightening, heat, cold, bugs, etc, no matter what. Weather is part of the experience. Enjoy your hike!
Tim
weather doesnt matter. The people are still great and the trail gives what you need maybe not what you want but what you need…if you let it! Did I mention how great the people were?
Yo-Y0