JJ -
Weather is obviously unpredictable, the melt-off rate of the snow is impossible to predict, and hikers will be starting at different times from the border… So I figured I give a first hand account of what I ran into in a very heavy SoCal snow year (‘05) on the PCT.
The locals in Idyllwild told me that the winter of ‘05 was the first time ever the summit shelter atop San Jacinto was buried completely. This was also the year that the Angeles Crest Highway in the San Gabriels was nearly obliterated. I was one of the ‘early’ hikers that year (started April 8th) and here’s what I ran into in SoCal:
(1) San Jacinto (4/20/05): Patchy snow north of Apache Peak, solid snow from Red Taquitz all the way to Black Mountain Road at the end of Fuller Ridge.
(2) San Bernardino Range (4/30/05): Solid snow from Mission Creek Camp to Arrastre Trail Camp.
(3) San Gabriels (5/9/05): About 10 miles of snow above Wrightwood. Solid Snow from Angeles Crest Highway @ Vincent Gap all the way to Three Points (Angeles Crest Highway).
The good news on a heavy precipitation year is the fact that there’s a lot of water sources in the desert. (In ‘05 Billy Goat counted 14 sources between the Border & Lake Morena!) The bad news is obviously the challenge(s) of snow travel. When it’s snowbound, San Jacinto can be very challenging in terms of route-finding - since you’re in the trees - you don’t have the expansive views that you normally have, say in the Sierra’s. In ‘05, a fellow thru-hiker (John Donovon), died on the flanks of San Jacinto after getting lost.
I hiked past Idyllwild, few miles past Deer Springs Trail, but was unable to find Fuller Ridge in deep snow, so I retreated and ended up road walking (Highway 243 & Black Mountain Road) back to the PCT. I was the furthest north of the NOBO hikers at this point - there were no tracks in the deep snow & I didn’t have a GPS.
When I hit the heavy snow in the San Bernardino Range, I found it safer (since I didn’t have my ice axe with me) to hike up over the summits of all the peaks rather than attempt to follow the buried PCT which contours around the mountains north of Mission Creek Camp.
In the San Gabriels, I hiked over all the snow (about 10 miles) until Vincent Gap. At this point I got nailed with a nasty storm - high wind, sleet, rain & snow - and ended up walking on the snowbound Angeles Crest Highway (believe it or not there were avalanche induced snow drifts over twenty five feet hight on the highway!) all the way to Three Points. Even the ‘road walking’ was brutal in ‘05 - AC2 was washed out in places & covered in massive snow drifts & debris.
I guess the moral of the story is to know your limits, be careful, and bail out when the risk is too high. If San Jacinto is snowbound this year & you’re uncomfortable with the conditions, there are plenty of places to bomb off the ridge (like Fobes Saddle or Spitler Peak Trail) and road walk to Black Mountain past Fuller Ridge. In the San Bernadino mountains there are forest service roads that lead to highway 38 which you could use to reconnect to the PCT south of Big Bear. Finally in the San Gabriels, the potential snowbound sections will already be closed due to the Station Fire, so I imagine that most of us will be heading down the Manzanita (High Desert National Scenic Trail) Trail from Vincent Gap.
Happy Trails!
freebird
Hope to see you there. Happy Trails