Almanac Looking GRIM :(

imported
#1

Since I have an Early start date Feb 1st, I have been watching forecast models pretty close. The Farmers almanac has this coming February and March as one of the coldest and wetest on record? I have heard from other sources that this could be an unusual year. The following is straight off thier prediction.

Region 8: Deep South
Annual Weather Summary
November 2004 - October 2005

The first half of winter will be colder and drier than normal. Then, February and March will be among the coldest ever, with frequent snow across the north. The snowiest periods will be late December, mid- and late February, and early March. The coldest temperatures will occur in mid-November, mid-January, February, and early March.

The north they are reffering to in this area is Tennessee.

Has anybody else heard this?

BearKat

#2

This year’s Farmer’s Almanac predicted average to below average precipitation for the months of July-September for the following states: Florida, Georgia, S. and N. Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Tennessee, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. For those either hiking or living in in these states during those months, they can tell you that this was false. In fact, most states were innundated(sp) with rain fall during those months.

The Farmer’s Almanac also called for average temperatures and above average rainfall for the summer months in Texas. Temps soared and rainfall was scarce. The biggest disappointment was the prediction of temperatures 3-4 degrees below normal in Texas for the month of October, and we reached record high temperatures instead.

The weather has become too unpredictable, unfortunately, to even count on the Farmer’s Almanac for a good forecast. The publishers of this book have acknowledged this, especially due to the fact that they were completely off with hurricane predictions this year.

Please don’t ask me why I know so much about the Farmer’s Almanac.

bearbait

#3

I don’t know nothen bout no Farmers but I’m in New Mexico finnishing up my Thru-hike and its cold and wet. I got two inches of snow last night and they’re calling for more tonight. Its been the wettest year in 6 years and Colorado is all but covered allready, for anyone planning a CDT hike next year i would say Northbound is out, unless you plan to jump around a lot. Late june would be your best start from Canada.
As for the AT, you got nothing to worry about, just a lot of cold and snow

Goof

#4

Great planning aid. Don’t forget to write a letter to Santa.

bullet

#5

I am starting my thru hike march 17 2005 and I hope its going to snow alot . I also heard its suppossed to be bad in the appalachians well into aprill. You might want to wait a month. That is why I am going 3rd week in March

john

#6

Hey BearKat-good to see you’re heading back out there. I wish I could come along!

Honestly I wouldn’t look too much into the weather predictions. The Almanac is great, but it can be wrong. Southern Mountain weather is wacky and makes no sense. IMO, there is no strategy to avoid snow and cold temps, unless you start may 1st or later. Starting in march or even april will not make a whole lot of difference except the fact that you’ll be exposed to more of it starting 2/1.

The past 2 hiking years, the majority of snow storms have come in April. In fact March of 03’ and 04’ was pretty mild, especially the first two weeks of both years. So really there is no sense deliberating when they are gonna come. Better to just be prepared with gear and clothing and have a good mindset going into it. And hey, the Grayson Highlands are beautiful with some snow on them!

Enjoy brotha man

A-Train

#7

Anyone who believes the Farmers Almanac,I have a bridge to sell them.Ask yourself how many times have they gotten it right? Not many it turns out.Even the “professional” weather people dont like to forcast more than a few days ahead.The do some long range forcast using scientific methods,but many times that is wrong.My father-in-law used to say that you could tell how severe the winter would be by the width of the marks on the wolly bear.of course he was wrong most of the time.

old&in the way

#8

the Farmers forecast was right. This has been the HOTTEST October I can ever remember. Ever … it’s been like August in October. :mad I like cold anyway, so a good cold winter would be especially welcome now after being boiled alive last month.

Boiled

#9

The folks at the Almanac use sun spots some how or another to make there forecast. Also some kind of secret formula. It’s interesting to read the different forecast in different almanacs.I guess it’s all in the reading. They are usually correct on the days for gardening, fence post setting,hair cutting etc… I wonder if they know who will win the election?
:rolleyes

pete56