Folks – would appreciate any musings on the following: is there any time in the coming months when we can make a guess at what snowpack conditions will be in Sierra for northbound thru-hikers. I completely understand the answer is likely “no” – late storms and all that. But thought I would ask. As example, if snowpack is “light” at end of February is there then a somewhat higher probability that passes will be clearer-than-average for those of us hiking on a 5 month schedule?
McIntyre
In a ‘normal’ year, you want to be entering the Sierras around June 15. That means beginning your hike (unless you are a very fast hiker) at the end of April, beginning of May. Next year is not an el nino year (as 2005 was, as well as '97 and '95 and a few other memorable years) so it will likely not be a particularly high snow year. You can’t really tell in February, because it can snow in April or May or even June, and the level of snow is also dependent on how warm the temperatures are in May and June. (i.e. when we hiked the cdt, it was a very cool spring in Montana so snow melt was late that year). Keep an eye on the NOAA sites or the postholer site and you’ll have an idea of how much snow falls over the winter, then pay attention to the weather in the spring to see how quickly it’s melting. Or just leave at the end of April and take your chances. On pct-l there is an annual ‘forecast’ from a couple of the members who have been watching conditions for several years. It is about as accurate as the Farmer’s Almanac, I think, but keep your eye on PCT-l and you can see for yourself.
Ginny
You can keep an eye on the snow pack by monitoring the Postholer report on a regular basis. It is self-explanatory.
http://delnorteresort.com/cgi-bin/postHoler
Jeff
The later, the better, for the Sierra. For planning purposes, Ray Day (June 15, I think) is about fine. If you leave on ADZ, you’ll get there a lot earlier than that, or take a lot of zeroes. I wouldn’t bet on any particular snow pack until maybe mid April.
Suge