Someone told me once about the dropout statistics on hikers and the amount of weight that they were carrying. It was either in a book or a magazine article. Statistics showed what happened to hikers starting with too much weight verses the hikers that finished the trail and the amount of weight they were carrying. Does anyone know where the results are posted or what the name of the book is?
Rick
You can look at stats,human physiology,weight(pack as well as somatic) What matters most is your rational determination. There have been hikers that have summited Katahdin over 100+ lbs overweigth,likewise there have been hikers content on carrying 60lb packs. Know your limitations and be consistent. Perhaps the most inspiring hiker(overweight) is Big Red, read his journal, he knew his limits and followed his intuition and thru-hiked. The Trail(and not just the At) is at least 90% psychological. Also, the ultralight,megahikers are interesting to learn from, they challenge and test mental limits. Whatever your goals or ambitions, your feet are important. If you have good insurance, use it and go to a podiatrist that will check your arches and tendon strength, don’t forget to carry your loaded pack. A concentrated cream containing a high % of urea may help condition your feet,other than walking for several weeks with your pack on. Thruhiking is hard on your body-hardest on your feet, this is where many thruhikers to be fail, their feet can’t stand the punishment of the AT down south. Happy Trails and good luck, 2 Spirits
mike
That stat you read was BS .probably written by someone who never hiked. The truth is every body starts with too much weight. Its shear will power and want that gets you there.
Virginian
Big Red lost 85 pounds in weight during his thru hike. He was over 300 pounds at the start in weight. Don’t know what weight in carryed as far as a pack is concerned.
Pack weight will beat you down day after day. The heavier the pack, the more physical stress is put on your body. Now having said that, you can thru hike carrying a 100 pound pack if you have the will and determination to do so.
I guess what it really boils down to mostly is mind over matter. People use their physical ills (feet hurt, chafeing, legs hurt, giardia, etc) as a excuse to quit. But if a hiker is really determined, none of that will stop them, but it probably will slow them down a bit, but they will not quit.
So, I agree with Virginian that “Its shear will power and want that gets you there.”
See you out there. :cheers :cheers :cheers
Maintain
Sure, a lot of willpower is required to hike a trail hundreds or thousands of miles long. But LESS willpower is required if you’re not carrying an anvil on your back! 
I haven’t seen statistics of the kind you’re looking for. They’re not in Mueser’s wonderful book, unfortunately-- I just checked. He does say that whether you carry 30, 40, 50, or 60 pounds doesn’t seem to have a statistically significant impact on your hiking speed. However, hikers carrying below 30 pounds do move noticably faster. The big caveat is that his data is all from people who COMPLETED the trail.
Generally, statistics about AT hikers are pretty scarce, I think. I think the rangers at Katahdin keep a pretty good record of completions, and most hikers stop by Harper’s Ferry for a picture, but that’s about it. The hordes that start at Springer each year are nameless and uncounted, so far as I know.
The impact of reducing pack weight is probably more clear on the PCT than the AT. At least anecdotally, Jardine’s popularization of lightweight hiking in the early 90’s increased completion rates dramatically.
Eric
There is absolutely NO correlation between the amount of weight being carried and sucess rate. It’s another one of those things dreamed up by ultralighters to try and prove their way is better. How do you account for the thousands of hikers to complete the AT prior to Jardine? Want to finish the AT? Here’s a simple solution. Get your pack weight to where it’s comfortable for you to carry. Make sure the AT is the MOST important thing to you for the time you’re on the trail. Start walking and remember Grandma Gatewood’s saying…Head is more important than heel.
Moose
Great thread here. The psychological power will be the major determinant,as well as pain threshold. The first hike is the toughest, as the mi increase for most, Spirit and the anomalous exper. will prevail. 2 Spirits
mike
Of course a greater pack weight will also increase the chance of knee and stress injuries, thereby knocking someone off the Trail.
0101
Everyone has their own preferences on what they are willing to carry to be comfortable in camp. Ultralighters aren’t getting any further down the trail because of their gear. But make sure you know what you want before you drop a load of cash on gear. I saw several people replace all of their main gear (brand new) at Neel’s Gap last year.
Mark