Moonshine-
Have a look at the GET water chart for an idea of what to expect in terms of water sources. If it’s a very dry winter, focus on the “3” and “4” sources, otherwise some or perhaps even many of the “2” sources may be flowing as well.
The form and function of the GET water chart was actually inspired by the Arizona Trail water chart developed by Fred Gaudet. The coding for water source probability is slightly different between the two, (see the fine print) but the purpose of the chart is the same and avoids the pitfalls of overgeneralizing about seasonal water availability. http://www.fredgaudetphotography.com/aztrail1.html
If you’d rather avoid snow, there are ways you could also do that along the Arizona Trail. Of course, anything goes in mid-winter, but most of the time, short of a very recent cold storm, the snow in that part of the state will be confined to the highest reaches above 7500-8000 ft. You can avoid this terrain by taking various detours. For example in the Rincons you could detour via Douglas Spring Trail, then hop cross-country north in open terrain to Mule Deer Tank (32.23789° N 110.62081° W; see USGS quads), there picking up a network of OHV roads to walk by scenic Chiva Falls, then pick up the AZ Trail again in Tanque Verde Canyon.
To avoid the snowbound crest of Mt Lemmon, you could hike Romero Canyon Trail from Romero Pass down to Catalina State Park, then take the 50 Year Trail north. Make your way toward Charouleau Gap, then 4WD and trail to Catalina Camp, up to Oracle Ridge and a resumption of the AZT northbound. There may be a formalized way of making such a connection but I’m not personally familiar with it.
Of course, if you’re mainly concerned with navigation, then you’d need to decide whether you’re more comfortable trying to follow the known quantity of the Arizona Trail in spite of any snow up high, or to walk bare ground to circumvent it in spite of the adventure and unique challenges that going your own way tends to present.
Incidentally, the most challenging stretch of the Arizona Trail in this region to navigate when snowbound is arguably from Manning Camp to the Saguaro National Park boundary in the Rincon Mountains. In particular the piece of trail around Italian Spring is highly unintuitive to follow due to a combination of burned terrain and circuitous sidehill traversing. Someone really should flag this area for the benefit of early season use, as it isn’t just the intrepid mid-winter explorer that often has to deal with snowpack here. It’s a springtime thru-hiker’s rite of passage. Of course, every one of them lived to tell, so far as we know. The difficulties tend to loom largest in the mind beforehand, secondarily in the field, but most are manageable so long as your trail sense tells you it’s safe to proceed. Otherwise, the worst fate in store would likely be an about-face, maybe a minor food crisis somewhere down the line, but nothing too perilous for the experienced long-distance walker.
blisterfree