For those hiking the PCT in 2010, they will encounter 3 major closures; assuming no new ones appear during 2010.
The oldest is is the Glacier Peak closure that has been in effect for several years due to massive storm damage. They have rebuilt many bridges and fixed the trail in many places. However, there are still several old growth blowdowns and the lack of bridge over the Suiattle River. That said, hikers have been going through the closure regularly since 2006 and the trail only gets better each year. This year, I found this section to be trivial to pass through and was barely slowed down by the blowdowns as there are well defined paths around/under them. There seems to be a long every year that crosses the Suiattle River if you look around long enough. You aren’t really violating any laws going through this closure as even the detour signs on the trail are all almost gone and nothing telling you that you have to go arround. The rangers know most thru-hikers are now hiking it and don’t seem to mind. There isn’t a real good reason anymore to skip this section.
However, there are going to be 2 major fire closures next year that technically could bring a fine if you are caught hiking them. It won’t be due to an active fire as they were put out this year already. The closures will remain though due to severely eroded trail, danger of rockslides and unstable trees that could come down at any time.
There is one fire closure just north of Snoqualimie that burned this summer. The actual burn area is only a few miles long, but to hike around it is much longer due to where the side trails are located. However, there are 2 possible alternative routes that hikers used this summer. From talking to a few hikers who chose to hiked through the closure while it was still smoldering (it was left to finish burning out in the winter), they said it was hard going in places with missing trail. But by next year, the trail will almost impassible in places due to heavy errosions from the winter storms and the spring runoff as there is nothing left to hold the trail on the hillside in places and it was already in bad shape. There was tape across the trail through here stating the trail was closed and it will likely take longer then a year until they get the trail repaired.
Then there is the massive fires that burned in the San Gabriels (Angeles NF) just north of Los Angeles. This is a much longer closure then what you are looking at in Washington. There will likely be an alternative route around this fire as well but it has yet to be established yet (wait until spring). As above, parts of the original trail will likely be heavily erroded by the winter storms.
I’m sure there will be some who choose to hike through the fire closures, but I suspect that most hikers will hike around them on whatever official alternative route that gets established. This isn’t the same as skipping as you still will be able to hike a continuous line to Canada on what was the PCT that year. Those that hike through the closures should do so with the knowledge that they could be fined. There will be signs on either end of the closure so you aren’t going to get away with playing dumb. All you could do is hope that you receive mercy and a warning.
Now if there is a new fire in 2010 that closes part of the trail, things will be slightly different. If no alternative route exists other then road walking, most hikers will likely choose to skip over that section. Few choose to hike through an active fire zone once official closures go up. After all, all your relatives and friends would talk about how stupid you were if you got injured or even died having ignored all those warning signs. This years fire in Old Station led to numerous people skipping over that section from various points and not everyone landed at the same place as some skipped ahead farther then others. A few of us came back after we finished in Canada to try and finish hiking this section since it was reopened, but most will never come back.
Miner