A February 1st start worked great, for me. I am from Michigan, right across the pond and found the “winter” down there to be like a bad spring. In 2004 at least. Temps in the 20-30’s at night and low to mid 40’s during the day. PERFECT for hiking. I am not sure if this was a mild winter down there or not, but it sure seemed like it to me.
Snow wasn’t and didn’t ever seem like an issue, but you sure did appreciate a trail that was snowfree. Being from Wisconsin you’ll be alright. I wouldn’t recommend snowshoes leaving in Feb. January maybe, or if you leave in early Feb u may want them for the Smokies only. (pick them up in Fontana) I never used my cramp-ons, but have abolutely needed them in the past. Roll of the dice.
I also support bringing a zero degree bag. I had a mountain hardwear with the expander baffle so on nights when it was warm (30’s) i would unzip the baffle for extra room and to stay cool. It weighed 4 lbs, which i guess is heavy. Better than being dead.
I used a windproof fleece as a camp jacket, and if I were to do it overagain, I would have gotten a down jacket. I thought I would need the windproof factor to hike in when it was storming but I always used my raincoat with my my patagonia capillene underneath. I would suggest a heavier grade, longer raincoat, versus something sub 1 pound and shorter. I would also bring rainpants, to protect against the wind. Yes, you can do away with them in the summer but I had a lot of 35 deg and rainy days. You’ll want them.
I also liked full length gaiters to keep my legs warm and snow/ice/rain out of my boots or shoes. I was able to stay warm with lightweight summer zip-off pants and gaiters so long as I was moving. I’d change into longjohns at the shelter.
Many people say to leave extra clothes at home, but I have to disagree there. You may find yourself in a situation where you are cold and wet and even the zero degree bag won’t save you. I carried extra clothes I never wore, just in case. Suck it up. Carry something extra to wick moisture away. Also make sure your sleeping bag is in some waterproof barrier during the day and I would suggest always unpacking it as soon as you drop back for the day and always during a zero day.
Leaving early you’ll have all the shelters to yourself or to share with a select few. I would recomend a weather proof bivy to keep the snow off that may blow in. Save weight here, I wouldn’t carry a stand alone shelter. But I had enough range to make it to shelters so I didn’t have to worry about running out of gas between shelters. You know your own body better than anyone, though people will tell you different. Listen to your body.
As far as spring/summer night time temps. I used a 40 deg from April 12th (harpers ferry) all the way north. I was cold once. The night it got down to 33 degrees and i was in my hammock. My own fault. (“Boo” on the hammock by the way.)
For summer hiking I would use one set of zip-offs and have a pair of gym shorts to wear around camp and sleep in.
Also remember that nothing will dry overnight unless you are wearing it. So a zero degree bag is handy because you will get chilly wearing wet pants/socks/underwear to bed but you’ll be thankful in the morning.
It will seem cold in the morning and you won’t loligag getting packed up. I always slept with everything within my wingspan and packed up as much as I could from the comforts of the bag. Then you boogie.
I would suggest bringing 2 pairs of gloves. Make one waterproof. You will want one pair when it is cold,rainy, and windy. You will then want a pair to wear at the shelter while you cook. 2 pair.
I had a fleece hat to sleep/camp/eat in. And another windproof one to hike in and wear in the rain. It had a chinstrap and I kept a biner on my sternum strap which I clipped the hat to when i wasn’t wearing it (gloves also). I’d slid it on during a windy stretch and off again during a climb.
Whatever you buy as a shell (fleece or rainjacket) i would recommend pit-zips in the armpits.
Feel free to email or read my journal. Props to you for wanting to start early. The second most important thing is to start.
Some liked it, some hated it. Above all, do what you feel like.
walk fast
Officer Taco