If you don’t know how to use a set now, I’d learn real soon. Unless it is a record low snow year, like 2007, you won’t have any trail to follow. Instead, you’ll be navigating by map and compass. Moreover, you’re going to have to deal with potentially lethal avalanche conditions. Hopefully you have some skill already at reading avalanche slopes, or are going to get some soon.
Yes, people cross the Sierra in winter conditions all the time. Many have few skills and get away with it. Many have lots of skill and are in the wrong place at the wrong time. But do you really want to become a statistic? We’ve have 5 people did already in my neck of the woods (WA) from avalanches. Even if you don’t care about becoming a stat, maybe you should care about the people who come out looking for you.
Of course, as always, the choice is yours. Maybe the snow year will be really low. Maybe it won’t. Maybe you’ll get swept away by Bear Creek, maybe you won’t. Maybe an avalanche coming off of Mather pass will get you. Maybe it won’t. Maybe you’ll get lost, maybe you won’t.
Lastly, it is a long, long way from KM to VVR on snow (VVR may not even be open). If you want to cover the roughly 175 miles, assuming an average of 10 mpd (no skis, working very hard), you’re looking at 2.5 weeks of travel. Are you really ready for that?
This all may be moot. Maybe you’ll have another historically low snow year. But I think depending on global warming isn’t really a safe bet.
Suge