Research/follow up

imported
#1

I’m doing some informal research based on my curiosity about finish rate from springer. I noticed over the course of my hike that not nearly the amount of people i was told would drop out actually did. The numbers have always been around 10-15 percent completion, and about 17 percent in the last few years (maybe closer to 20 percent?) However way more of the real live thru-hjikers i knew and loved made it to katahdin so im just trying to compile some numbers here.
I was wondering if anyone had information on the following folks who i lost touch with along the way.
Cannoli, Cakes, Caddis, Mamma Lipton and Flatlander, bonfire, snuggles, apollo, oz, brownie, mike and keith (blacksburg boys), Siesta, fly by night, smooth navigator, Nickle and Dime, mr cranky pants, and Quassimodo and 2X4
You can email me off list if you’d rather not post on the site. Thanks a lot.
Also would like to mention that ive kept track of those not intending to make katahdin. Those folks who left from springer are counted in neels gaps’ count as well as ATC, if they get that far. I wanted to do the math for all categories. A-Train

A-Train

#2

There are a number of folks who don’t make it to Neels Gap. And, as you said, there are a lot who start the trail with no intention of going all the way, who may be counted among the starters but non-finishers. And then there are a lot of folks who don’t write to ATC, for a lot of reasons, who are included in the drop out list. And there are a lot who don’t ‘finish’ because they skipped significant parts of the trail, even though they were at Springer and Katahdin. So you would assume they had done the whole trail, but they don’t. I’ve known several who got off the trail for a week or two and jumped ahead to rejoin friends.

One thing I am curious about is what proportion of AT hikers are repeat hikers. At one point a few years ago it was about 15%, supposedly.

Ginny

#3

It seemed to me also that most people I knew finished. However, someone else pointed out some people that I had assumed were just behind me, but in truth they had gotten off. People usually went quietly, without a word to most others. I spent the morning once with a hiker in Harpers Ferry, who I’d hiked with on and off since Springer. After lunch I went to the ATC offices to look for him, and he was hone, and had signed in the photo book as GA>HF 2002. Later, I talked to a bicyclist on the C&O towpath who said he met the hiker at the train station going back home. The hiker told the bicyclist he didn’t want to say goodbye to other hikers.

I also met a guy who went about 1 mile up the approach trail at Springer, turned around and got a flight home the next day. No one else I talked to had even met him. So, a lot of the people who leave could do it in the first week, and you maybe wouldn’t have even met them yet because of the high numbers of hikers then. I would really like to see the trail register from Springer mountain from the week I started. Someday I’ll have to visit the GATC.

Jitterbug

#4

jittebug,
you make a good point. Many folks do quit discreetly. I met a guy at blue mtn shelter in georgia that my friend flick had been hiking with since springer. He was ahead of us and when we got to unicoi gap he was getting in a guys car to go to hiawasee. He told us his knee was killing him and he would wait for Flick and the rest of us in town. When we got to Mulls Motel he had left a note for flick saying that this was not what he wanted to do right now.
I know what your saying about people behind. We always assumed everyone we met was still out there just a couple days behind. It was shocking to learn that some people were two weeks or more behind.
When I got off for a wedding for 9 days i returned to hikers welcome hostel in glencliff and only 5 or 6 hikers had passed thru-I had this idea that crowds and crowds of people would have been just behind.
Now im trying to find out what happened to most of the folks behind. TJ has helped a good deal with his katahdin and baxter park results and visits.
This was something i was very interested in, just because when we got to damascus it still seemed as if about 80 percent of the folks were around.

A-Train

#5

A-Train, I met you and Mr. Cranky Pants both at Springer on 3/1. I was there to see off some of the Pack 3/1 group, Jan, Hotdog, Wench, Bumpkin, etc. I have been following lots of journals this year, since I knew or met lots of you getting on the trail that weekend. BTW, congratulations on finishing!! Mr. Cranky Pants ended up hiking a good bit with the 5 Alive group, Speck, Slickrock, Diesel, Ketchup, and ? Check out there journals to get some info on Mr. CP. I don’t think he finished, but he hung in there to somewhere past NY I think. Anyway, I think some of the 5 Alive group could fill in the details for you. They also started on 3/1, and the last I read they were nearing the Big K. They may have summited by now. Been having computer problems, and haven’t gotten to read much the last few days. Jan, Wench, and Hotdog should also be summiting soon.

swallowtail

#6

Hi A-Train and good luck with your project. I have been very interested in the “numbers” for a long time. I used to call Jeff and Dorthy at Neels Gap and bug them about numbers… this year I spent a few days there with Winton and Margie. My thought was to count hikers for a couple of days. It was impossible! These are some of the observations I have made:

Not even half the hikers I have talked to over the past several years did the approach trail… Many of those that did start at Amicalola did not sign the official signin/ pack weighin book…(they didn’t know about it, they started when the center was closed, or they got excited about starting and forgot) The thruhikers that sign the register in the rock at Springer are not officially counted. Many don’t know it is even there and for a good part of the early season this year, the register was frozen solid in a block of ice! So the “starting a thruhike” numbers are completely wrong every year.

They try very hard at Mountian Crossings to take pics and get people to sign in… but it is often way too busy to catch everyone that walks through. Many hikers don’t even know that there is a signin book there or they assume it is just if you are staying at the Hostel. Or they just don’t sign in for whatever reason.

When you get a permit as a thruhiker for the Smokey’s you are saying that you started outside of the park and intend to hike past the park (50 miles beyond each end I think?) They do not keep a count of GA to Me versus Spring breakers and other long distance hikers. The attendant at the Fontana Dam used to keep count of as many hikers as he could…during his shift. He had no way of knowing about those that crossed at other times.

So, when you hear numbers thrown around like “50% drop off before Neels Gap…” “1756 hikers started a thruhike this year…” Just realize they are just guesses and opinions.

Miss Janet

#7

Swallowtail-HEY! I definately remember you. You gave all us 3/1 starters the nice package of treats and an orange as well as a quote. I also remember camping with you at gooch and singing round the fire. That night it was 16 degrees and i have great memories of shivering in my tent in the middle of the night contemplating sneaking into your van :slight_smile: You were also with anna/mudbutt supplies trail magic for us at woody gap. Pack 31 so to speak did extrememly well. Dimples finished just after I as well as Subman a few days before. 5 alive just finished with jan, hotdog and wench probably reaching K this week. Ted was with us all in spirit.
Miss Janet-damn, you did do some research! your right tho. I did NOT do the approach but did sign in at the visitors center. Many folks i know who got shuttled from airports etc… went straight to usfs 42. Neels gap was taking pics but it was so busy in there that you had to stumble upon the book or ask them to take your picture. there were tons of folks hanging out there that either went down to goose creek or camped up the hill. That 4th of march there was an overwhelming amount of hikers.
I do remember a fellow on the fontana dam bridge who asked us if we were thru-hiking and where we were from. He was either a maintainer or worked for the park, but it was an informal count of his.
I would say that you have one of the best opportunites to count folks since so many stay with you and follow up about their hike, BUT after reading so many journals im suprised by the small (but seemingly large) number of folks who stay with el jerko down by the river. I suppose when i was with you during snowstorm 1 there were tons of folks who were “trapped” there and your place was busy.
I suppose no business, even Mount rogers outfitters can get a true count. there are people who would have dropped out by this point and thru-hikers are so different they never converge on one place.
There is always the issue too of the people who never registering finished or the opposite( who stretch the truth). I wanted to do this study on just the folks i met along the way from springer.

A-Train

#8

a-train, how about bone dancer, braveheart, early riser, underpants, and denmark. any word on whether they finished?? by the way, last i heard about cranypants was that he was getting off in PA. planned to finish the rest of the trail next yr. he was hiking w/5 alive and eric/cire. eric finished w/5 alive, i believe

pat

#9

i heard from siesta last week, he was enjoying maine and still talkin like a easy listening radio dj.

girl next door

#10

Hey Pat! How are you? i got a couple pics of you and your doggie-how is she? hope everythings going well.
Earlyriser I last saw around Erwin when Ms J was slacking people around. I think she left the trail in erwin. I believe Denmark(dutchess) was going only to harpers ferry, but got off somewhere in the kincorra/damascus area. 5 alive would know.
underpants luckily changed his name to shovel and he finished around august 12th. Braveheart flew up the trail, and hated every minute of it (from what the registers said). She finished around July 20th i believe. She was always ahead of me. Bonedancer i never saw after Georgia. He either was not intending to go the whole way, or decided not to, and finished up at harpers ferry. He was another speedy one that hiked much with braveheart. Was always a good week ahead of me.
Good to hear Alex/Siesta is still out there if we are talking about the same guy? He was a bartender from DC, and oh so smooth with tha ladiez :slight_smile:

A-Train

#11

i met up w/5 alive, crany, eric, duchess and early riser in damascus. at that point, duchess and early riser (who had left at erwin, but came back on in damascus) were not sure how far they were going to go. i hike w/them for a bit. when i saw braveheart at partnership shelter, bonedancer was with her. not sure how far he went after that. i think braveheart was trying to finish w/in her visa allowed time. at the rate she hiked, hard to imagine she had a good time. she was doing 20 days in GA. also glad to hear alex is still out there. saw him last at NOC. pile up finished weeks ago. that’s all i know, but i get a sense that you may be correct about the numbers of pact 3/1 finishing. does seem like a high number. by the way, may see you at the gathering if you are going. am going to be in stowe the week before and plan to drive over for sat. my dog carly has now become the uberhiker dog, much unlike the crazy loon who started in springer. again, congrats to you a-train and all the folks who finished this year.

pat

#12

It’s a mystery. That is what happened to everybody. I don’t think it’s possiable to get an actual count of those who start and those who finish. What is published is a estimate taken from the limited information that is available.
Many who start from Springer and call themselves thru-hikers have no intention to do a complete thru. Many who reach Katahden and report a thru-hike realy didn’t.
I can not think of any way a honest count could be achieved.
When the list of hikers who claimed a complete thru was published in the Appalachian Trail News for my thru-hike year, “01”, I saw a lot of folks listed who I know did not complete.

Grampie

#13

He left Monson last Sunday and was taking 9 days through the Wilderness, planning to summit next Weds the 17th. I’ll hear from him definitively when that happens, but you can bet it will. He was still planning on heading to the LT to go southbound, but looks like he’ll be just behind me in that endeavor. And yes, Taiyoo is still with him and doing well, I went out and met them on the Wildcats in Aug.

Bluebearee

#14

Mama Lipton, Flatlander and Cannoli all finished (mid-august?) I was reading their register entries the last few weeks of my hike. Quasimodo finished the day before me, on the 28th, and was flopping down.

Tang

#15

Hi A-Train,

Nickel and Dime had changed trailnames by Harpers, but I never saw their new names in any registers after HF (not that they ever signed much anyway). Early Riser and Duchess of Denmark got off at Harpers, but they had never intended to go further. They had plans to travel elsewhere for the rest of the summer.

I have Cannoli’s email address–email me if you’d like it.

BTW, another category may be those who start as sectioners only to go all the way. Red Headed Stranger (early March at Springer) was originally only on for one month or so, but he kept going and made it to Katahdin as one of the first 10 or so to finish this year.

Moon Monster