Restating the Obvious

imported
#1

Every year about this time, several posts inquire about projected May-June snow conditions in the Sierra from Kennedy Meadows north. The usual answer is that it depends on what type of snow year it’s been.

Well, after the past week of storms, it appears that it’s going to be a pretty good snow year. The mountains surrounding Ridgecrest are covered down to around 3000 ft. Of course, this being CA, there could be a sustained heat wave next week.

But if I was a betting man, I’d bet that snow will be an issue in the Sierra well into June this year.

Booger

#2

As someone who has lived in CA for 30 years, there is no way you can judge the Spring snow levels based on the snow recieved through January. Its the early spring storms that usually make the difference between a high snow year and something below normal. As many have mentioned before, the April 1st snow levels are the best indicator of how it will be in May through June. The snow levels through Feburary don’t tell you anything other then that it may be a below snow year or not; and even then, we’ve had years where March-April storms erased what appeared to be a low snow year.

Miner

#3

If anyone is pondering a SOBO hike, I’d get in tip top shape. The snow pack is pretty massive right now, with trailheads in the Olympics closed down at 800 feet. There is a higher than normal snowpack at even just 3000 feet. I’d guess that a SOBO hiker would be delayed until around July 1 unless they came in with the right equipment, skills, and determination.

S

#4

In the two years that I thru-hiked, '97 & '05 there were dramatic changes in snow levels during the Spring. '97 was shaping up to be a big snow year until a massive tropical storm hit in late Spring (causing massive flooding in Yosemite) which cut the snowpack down to about average.

In '05, which was a huge snow-pack year by any standard, there was an incredibly high snow-melt rate in the late Spring and early summer, which helped allow many NOBOS to make it through in June and July.

As Booger remarked, April 1st levels should give you a pretty good idea, but keep an eye on Postholer.com when your hiking in SoCal to see if any late season storms hit…

freebird

#5

i meant to say “As Miner remarked”… :slight_smile:

freebird

#6

This year’s total snowfall at Mammoth Mountain has already topped last year’s. We have a 95-120 inch base at 9000’ on the mountain, but, as Miner said, Spring will determine the snow levels during the hiking season. Two years ago (in 06) we got over 10 feet in April.

Ryan

#7

I completely agree that spring storms will determine the extent of the snowpack in Jun. And you never know.

Snow conditions at Horseshow Meadow on Memorial Day have always been my measure of early summer snow/mosquito conditions. Last year, completely clear - no snow at all. In 2006, several feet of snow covering the entire meadow.

I’m just saying that based on snowfall so far, there’s a great chance snow will be an issue in June.

If anyone wants to bet a beer - to be enjoyed at the Whitney Portal Store or Kennedy Meadows Store at 2 PM on Memorial Day - I’ll bet ya’ that Horseshoe Meadows is at least 50% covered in snow on Memorial Day.

Booger

#8

anyone doing a sobo of the PCt this year?

sobo

#9

As of today, snow levels at Mt. Hood and in the WA Cascades are already quite a bit higher than the average total snowfall for the whole year. I-90 over Snoqualmie Pass has been closed for several days. Of course we could have a warm spring with no snow from now on (well, beyond the immediate forecast which for the next week is for feet more of the stuff), or we could have an “event” as in February 1996 when torrential warm rains melted most of the stuff and caused catastrophic floods, but barring those I think we can expect a late start to the summer hiking season in the Pacific Northwest. This is of special concern to those doing the PCT southbound. Do keep track on postholer, and if it still looks this way in April, revise your plans (or your gear) accordingly.

Grannyhiker

#10

if this keeps up-i am guessing that this is going to be a heavy snow year. but in truth u really wont know untill ur out hiking in it. it can and melt super fast or linger untill labor day. but as it looks now a march 1st start date if off the table for me and a april 1st is looking better. i am not to worried (but that can change once im there) about the Sierra because with my start date and just strolling im planning a mid to late may go date.im more worried about the north cascades. I seen it get very nastly in nearly every summer month (had a bad experiance trying out ultralite hiking in the paysatans wilderness-and the weather did go from mid 60’s to cold and snow-lol-but i did have a 24lb pack w/ water and 4 days of food). but then i have never hiked the Sierra before and i tend to carry alot more gear than most (about 40 to 50lb avg with everything-no more ultralite for me-lol)

boviine

#11

Boviine,
I would still entertain an earlier start in a heavy snow year. I hiked in 95 when Mammoth finally closed in Aug. Your biggest obstacle in a heavy snow year is the stream fords (or should I say “river fords”). There were many times when I saw a snow bridge that had melted too thin for me to take a chance using, and had to opt for fording or find another way. An earlier start for me would have made it easier at times (i started in late April). If it turns out to be a big snow pack in the Spring, whether you are in the Sierras in early June or early July, the snow is going to be there. I only met two PCT thru-hikers while on the JMT portion and one other hiker between Mt. Whitney and Yosemite (I was in Bishop on July 4th for a re-supply). Also, you may get through the snow before the snow-cups get too pronounced. The downside is that you increase your chances of getting caught in a late-spring snowstorm.

RC