Anyone heard about the snowfall on the PCT this year, specifically in the Sierras? I thought I remember hearing this year is supposed to be particularly high. Is there a site or reference to find this out from? Thanks
A-Train
Snowfall - Pacific Crest Trail
system
#2
check out this site. It was real helpful last year.
http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/snotelanom/basinswen.html
fitz manly
system
#3
I saw recently on some list (I think it was here, but I can’t remember), where a 2004 hiker had met Freefall (PCT’03). The 2004 hiker was asking Freefall about the Sierra snow. Freefall’s response was something like:
. . . you’ll hear about the “record” snowfall, that the Sierra hasn’t got this much snow in years, that the snowmelt is later than it has been in years, that you shouldn’t go into the Sierra until really late, blah, blah, blah. But none of the people who tell you this will be in the Sierra, they might have never hiked in the Sierra, they won’t stand on Forester Pass with you, it’s all a prediction game.
Freefall, of course, said it more eloquently. But the gist of his message is this: Be prepared; and it’s never as bad as “they” say it will be.
Don’t postpone your trip because of December snow estimates. Or even because of March/April snow estimates. An early (or fast) melt or late snowstorms could change everything.
Learn how to use an ice axe. Go to Campo and start walking north. If you have to hang out in KM for a week before entering the Sierra, then do that.
yogi
yogi
system
#4
We can’t predict the weather next week with any reliability, what makes you think that we can predict the snowfall for the year by looking at December? These predictions are based on a model that looks at snowfall over a huge area. Yogi is right just go and deal with what you find when you get there!
Big B
system
#5
Here are a few sites that have current data. The state of California tracks Sierra snow levels very carefully because it is important to the state economy.
Current snow levels for this time of the year are about 125% of normal in the southern Sierra. But most of the snow so far was in the form or record breaking storms in late October. Since then, it has been drier than normal.
Although I agree with earlier posts that you should just deal with what you get in the Sierra - and a lot of the melt won’t occur until after you start hiking - I do think that your start date could be adjusted a bit based on the snowpack in April. It has been 8 years since the last heavy snow year in the Sierras. In a year like with snowfall greater than 150% of normal, you will deal with a lot of snow, even with a late June departure from Kennedy Meadows. Historically, this type of year occurs maybe 15% of the time. There were very heavy years in 1993, 1995 and 1998 - none since then.
Here are some web sites with good current data.
This plot shows current snow levels relative to normal - the southern Sierra is most critical.
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/current/PLOT_SWC
Mammoth Mountain Ski Area (near Red’s Meadow on the PCT) also has monthly snow data going back to 1970.
You can see that they got 7 feet of snow in October this year. Mammoth attracts a lot of snow, so don’t assume all of the Sierras got that much snow, but you can compare levels with previous years. Click on the snow report in the upper right, then click on “Snowfall History”.
http://www.mammothmountain.com/
There are many other sites that show data for specific parts of the Sierra, such as Tyndall Creek, near Forester Pass. Look around on the California Snow Survey web site.
Don
Don
system
#6
There are many variables to consider in evaluating the snow difficulty along the John Muir Trail. Too many to allow any degree of certainty in an early start decision.
The area is vast - and the actual data collection stations relatively few, so conditions can vary greatly along the trail.
Do as much research as you can, accept the 75% solution - and be prepared to hang out somewhere along the trail if it appears you have guessed wrong.
Also, although we tend to focus on the ice axe stuff, don’t neglect acquiring some knowledge / technique for stream crossings. A lesson I learned the hard way crossing Wallace Creek along the Kern.
booger
system
#7
While I agree that you shouldn’t use snow and snowpack reports as a determining factor for your trip, these charts and graphs can be useful. It would be stupid to think that you can look at it once in December and tell what the snowpack will be like in June. You have to check it constantly and follow the general pattern. It is dealing with the snowpack, which accumulates over the course of the whole winter. Last year, at this time, snowpack was well above 125% of normal, but by the time April came around it was down to about 33% of normal. You have to keep looking at it to form your opinion. No matter what, though, there is going to be snow when you pass through the Sierra so you had better be prepared for it. The reports (if you’re a geek like me) are just fun to look at and then compare to actual conditions
fitz manly
system
#8
So true, that it is WAY too early to make any predictions about about conditions next spring. One interesting thing worth following however is that the snowpack in the Northwest is only at 25% of normal right now. If this persists, it would likely mean a bad fire season. Also, it is true that an el Nino is in effect which tends to bring more moisture to the south. Is this THE year for a southbound trek? Again, too early, but something worth following.
Hans Berg