I wouldn’t be so fast to proclaim this a south bound year.
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You will still have to deal with forest fires at the end of the hike. Only, rather than dealing with them in the northwest, you’ll deal with them in SoCal. It looks like the PNW will burn hard this year. But, SoCal always burns, so you’ve got your choice.
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End your hike by traversing 700 miles of SoCal at its very worst. No flowers, miserable conditions. Or, end at one of the most beautiful places in the world.
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The mosquitoes are going to be absolute hell on earth if you do a SOBO hike. And, they’ll probably be bad for 1000 miles.
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With all the water, this may be one of the great years for desert wildflowers. 2003 was, and I’m very, very glad that I got it in. SOBO hikers will miss this completely. Moreover, there is a significant chance of missing alpine flowers in the PNW as well.
The reasons people give for not going NOBO seem to be:
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There is a lot of snow in the Sierra, and you can’t hike on snow.
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The PNW is the best, so let’s get it out of the way first before it burns.
I can understand (2) as it really might happen. However, (1) is, to me, a non-issue. Start a bit later than the rest of the pack. Don’t rush it to KM. Take some time off there if the snow isn’t good. Hike in when your skill level allows it.
What is more problematical is river fords. There are a few nasty ones in the Sierra (and a host of less nasty ones). The fords are really very dangerous (or can be). With massive snow melt comes big, fast fords. Those are dangerous.
If it were me, I’d plan on leaving Campo are May 15 and on going into the Sierra around June 15. If you are not comfortable on snow, put off going into the Sierra until something like June 25.
Some people have mentioned the flip-flop. I think that makes a lot more sense than going SOBO (as you avoid both fire seasons, get both flower seasons, and end after the Sierra), but I still wouldn’t do it, though only for aesthetic reasons.
Suge