FWIW - I have a homebuilt airplane based at Inyokern and flew north over the Southern Sierra from Kennedy Meadows to Horseshow Mdw last week. Deep snow starts north of Kennedy Meadows before Monache Meadows. Southern Sierra weather is very unpredictable - but a betting man would say one more big storm between now and melt time will make for an average to above average snowpack. Not like last year.
booger
Also FWIW, TV report a couple of days ago said snow pack is 130% of normal. Didn’t say N S or central, just “the Sierras.” MarkV, what’s you’re prediction?
bowlegs
Awesome news!! And a hiker at the controls! From my experience the only reliable information on snow pack conditions have been from hikers who have just covered the ground. This is as close to that as you can get.
Thank you so much!
Razor
I don’t have any predictions! I would say though that with the southern Sierra snow levels currently a little below normal, that it’s getting close to a point where one could fairly confidently plan to start thru-hiking on an average date. There’s no recent precedent of a snow-year like this year all of a sudden turning into one like 2011.
No prediction, but if i were planning and had flexibility, i’d be starting around April 15th slowly (starting April 25th if you’re starting already in good shape) and planning to finish by about October 5th. Nothing crazy.
markv
Almost no precipitation here in S.F. bay area since my last post. Echo Summit (just west of Lake Tahoe) reported 93% of normal snowpack yesterday.
bowlegs
TV report yesterday, Echo Summit 50something% of normal. Weird winter this year. November and December way above normal precip, Jan Feb Mar almost nothing. Postholer.com has some nice graphs for N S and Central Sierra snow pack.
bowlegs
try this link:http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/snowsurvey_sno/COURSES
Keith and Donna Newlin
The last several years are actually following the same 5-year pattern.
2013 = 2008 = 2003 (early snows, then very little or an early melt)
2012 = 2007 = 2002 (very low snows)
2011 = 2006 (record high snows)
2010 = 2005 (high snow, but not crazy)
2009 = 2004 (average to slightly low)
The pattern breaks in 2001, and will surely break again in the future, but it seems to have been too consistent to be entirely coincidental.
I hiked in 2008 and i’m hiking again this year. I’m more than a little concerned that last year’s dry year, plus this year’s early snow and early melt is going to make for a repeat of the 2008 epic fire season. In 2008 i couldn’t see Mt. Shasta through the smoke until i got way past it into Oregon. There were 3 other major fire closures to go around also.
If the pattern holds, we’ve got an average/slightly low year coming up in 2014.
markv
If the pattern holds, we’ve got an average/slightly low year coming up in 2014.<<
Hey there, Mark “I don’t have any predictions” V., is this officially a… prediction? Also, have you seen a fellow who goes by the handle P. Phil? I’m (along with a few others) looking to settle a score with him.
tron
I’m not following. No, i’m not making a prediction. Just looking at past patterns. I don’t know P. Phil. If you’re implying i’m him or know him, sorry but i’m not your man. I’m pretty easy to spot really. I’m the guy who has been on here for 6 years and never capitalizes “i”. Old habit.
:cheers
markv
I flew from Kennedy Meadows to Horseshoe Meadows Thursday, Snow begins north of Monache - mostly on north slopes. Even though there is snow at Horseshoe, it doesn’t appear very deep and will probably be gone at the end of Apr. I’m off to FL on business this week but plan to check out snow conditions from Horseshoe to north of Kearsarge in mid April.
booger
I did not mean to be so obtuse with my lighthearted ribbing… Let me try again: Any snow left on Gobbler’s Knob? 
tron
I still don’t get it. Ribbing about what? Have i said something that wasn’t true? If so, maybe i’ll get it if you quote me.
markv
Mr Phil predicted that spring would come early up here in the Midwest. After a fairly mild winter there have a number of late season storms and colder weather. So everyone is mad at Phil because of his inaccurate prediction. He even was indited by Ohio. So that is the score that needs settled. It was obviously a regional joke.
Gg-man
Thanks for the backgroundhog info. It just seemed like Tron saying that he’s “ribbing” me and calling me Mark “I don’t have any predictions” V implied he thinks i predicted or said something wrong. Ribbing by definition isn’t just a joke, it’s teasing someone for something they did wrong.
So the joke makes no sense to me unless he’s saying i’m as fat as a groundhog, which i won’t argue with…
markv