I have used both a silnylon tarp and an REI half dome tent on different long Sierra hikes. Normally you will see nothing more than occaisional afternoon/early evening thunder storms in the summer. That being said, we had 12 straight days of moderate to severe thunder storms on our July, 2006 JMT hike and were glad we brought the tent.
Several years earlier we spent a loooong stormy night at 11,000 feet under our tarp praying the winds wouldn’t shred it. It held up, but the next morning I told my son that if I ever suggested using a tarp on a long trip again he was to slap me. He reminded me of that when I was trying to shave weight for our JMT hike. Since he offered to carry the tent, it was an easy decision to make.
I still use the tarp for short trips when the forecast is for good weather. It all depends on what you want to have on your back versus what you want for shelter if a big storm hits.
Snowball