Is it a good thing? In a lot of ways it is. Looks like the amount of thru-hikers this year is going to be lowest since Bryson’s book. Any opinions?
dblizzed
The decline of thru-hikers on the Appalachian trail
system
#2
The “amount” of thru-hikers? Have U been to skul? tsk tsk tsk :rolleyes
You mean the number of hikers. The number of thru-hikers is going to be lowest this year. Or is it? Maybe they’re just hiding from the trail census wirkers.
Grammer Coach
system
#5
I heard that Robert Redford and Paul Newman are teaming up for one last swan song movie. A movie version of Bryson’s book. I wonder if they are filming on certain parts of the trail. Cameramen and movie stars on the trail would be weird. I also wonder if the release of the movie will lead to another boom in number of thru hikers. does anyone know anything about this?
i also think that the increasing popularity and hikability of the PCT and CDT are pulling people of the AT, which no, is not a bad thing.
casey
system
#6
Why less people…
hmm- could it be that most adult Americans are overweight or obese? That many find the couch more inviting than the woods? That their lack of interest is forcefed to their children (and let’s not forget how many children are tending towards obesity). Why would a child walk in the woods when they can watch Barney or play with Game Boys?
I figure though, that everything is cyclical…a drop now will not be a drop for ever. Besides I’ve read so many complaints about how crowded it is for hikers, maybe this will stop the complaining.
C
system
#7
I also have been wondering why the numbers of AT thru hikers is decreasing. Actually, there are two trends: The numbers are decreasing, but the ratio of starting thru hikers that actually complete their journey is increasing, nearly 1 in 4 last year (AT), much higher than the 1 in 10 that was typically quoted a few years ago. I suggest there are several factors:
Better expectations: Due to a number of sites like Trail Journals people can read about the experience of other people on the trail before they commit to their own hike. After reading a journal or two it is apparent that a thru hike is much more than a “walk in the woods” – it is demanding physically and emotionally, and the rewards are much deeper than just “been there done that”.
Better equipment: Generally lighter weight and better design, both of which lead to a happier trail experience and fewer injuries.
Better preparation: Again thanks in great part to a number of web sites, it is much easier to identify what equipment works and what doesn’t, what to carry, and maybe most important, what to leave at home. Also, there is abundant information on where to get food, what kind of food, where to stay in town, how to deal with adverse weather, etc. etc. etc.
Trail angels: The extended community along the trail has in recent years, I think, reached out to hikers in a number of practical ways. How often has a cooler along the trail been a real emotional pick-up on a tough day? Or a quick hitch into town?
The national economy: This is a controversial one, but I did note a few years ago when the number of hikers was near its peak that there were, or at least I met, an unusually number of middle age career people who had just lost their jobs and so took the opportunity to pursue a dream while waiting for the economy to recover. There were also a number of college grads who realized the prospects of getting a good job in their profession were not good.
I am sure there are other factors as well, and probably no clear answers. Personally I am somewhat glad to see fewer hikers out there who are inadequately equipped and prepared. But I also ponder to what extent a good long hike would be a healthy experience to a lot of folks who are perpetually mesmerized by the sedentary entertainment that dominates the lifestyle of so many – of course, assuming adequate expectations, equipment, and preparation!
Tomorrow I leave for a section hike – I can hardly wait to get out and leave the complicated frustrating world behind!
Dioko
system
#9
Rockfish gap to Harper’s Ferry, figure 14 days at 12 miles/day. That is the plan, anyhow.
Dioko
system
#10
I believe it. It seems to me that a very large portion of the people I met on the trail in 2004 made it to “K”. People seemed well informed right from the start. Most hikers had a good idea of what to expect on the trail. Most had appropriate gear and clothing. Most carried too much in the beginning but knew enough to send stuff home. Most were lacking in the physical experience of backpacking but were very well informed.
Gabby Art
system
#11
Enjoy Shenandoah, I know I have (we live about 1.5 from SNP and 45 minutes from Harper’s). We moved here from Mass about 6 months ago and I’ve never been happier given the easy access to the AT.
Happy Hiking!
C
system
#12
I hiked in 2004 and one factor that I believe really helped out with our class was the good weather. I only had about two weeks worth of miserable weather.
The trail community definitely made a big difference. It wasn’t just the trail magic but the moral support and having a place in town where I could meet other hikers.
As for the economic theory, it seems that the economy is not as good right now. I would have expected to see fewer hikers during the dot.com boom days and many more now.
jalanjalan
system
#13
When the economy seems shaky, people are afraid to leave a decent job because they fear not being able to get another one later. In boom times you feel more secure that a job will be available when you are ready to go back to work. Also, five years ago the stock market was booming - so if you had any investments at all the rising market meant you felt like it was safe to take off for a while. Money invested was producing really good returns. With the bust in the stock market and the sluggish market the past couple of years, it no longer feels as safe to take off. Invested money may not even be exceeding inflation. Makes it hard to build a nest egg.
One factor in the changing success rates is the large number of repeat thruhikers. I know a lot who have done the trail multiple times. It feels quite easy, once you’ve done it all the way.
Ginny
system
#14
I live near the trail. If anything, I thought there were more thrus than ever. This whole argument is like standing next to a river once in a while and guessing how much water goes by. No one has any idea.
Blue Jay
system
#15
I think Ginny has a legit reason. I’ve sectioned for many years but had to work because of those dang kids in college. When they’re out I may be dead.
But then again if I’m bankrupt and destitute and divorced I’ll see ya on the trail!!!:cheers
Doc Bobcat
system
#17
Actually Blue Jay, hydrologists calculate river flow all the time and you can mystify and entertain your friends and family using this simple mmethod: The equation consists of multiplying the calculated cross section of the stream by linear flow per second. The answer is given in cubic feet per second, or “cfs.” Typically, AT hiker volume decreases distal to Springer Mountain, which is the inverse of how streams and rivers carry water, more volume the further you get from the source. )Maybe you could measure hiker volume in “hpd” or hikers per hour. For the straight arrow hikers, you could use “chd” for “cubic hikers per day” as in, they are squares, you know, those philmont boy scout types. Do a study. Get a government grant to do it. Use pseudoscience to write the funding proposal.)
The number don’t lie, but people do.
Cubic feet