I'm ready to talk Southbound

imported
#1

Well, I for one am starting to consider it. I’ve been a lurker on pct-l but was motivated by the current storm to put up my first post today. Alas, there seem to be problems. I’ll put it here instead:

Seriously folks, winter is moving right along and I’m starting to consider Southbound.

I don’t think snow in the Sierra is the issue…it’s not really THAT big of a year up there and a warm spring could easily make it an average year.

The much bigger issue to me is snow in Southern California and the lack of snow in Northern Oregon and Washington.

From my vantage point in Colorado, these appear to be setting up to be record events and I think it is foolish at this point in the winter to think somehow the conditions will change dramatically by April. Today’s NWS 6-14 day forecast (which has been VERY reliable this year) continues to suggest higher than normal precip in the South and lower than normal in the North. This takes us into mid-March; really only 6 weeks of winter weather left at that point.

It just seems to me postholing through snow in the South and coughing on embers in the North is a bad strategy. Plus, the class of '05 is being offered a unique opportunity to do something different. I like taking advantage of unusual opportunity…don’t all thru-hikers?

One big negative to this possibility is I was really looking forward to the wildflower show down South. I wish I was there right now. Maybe section F, E, and D-13 to D-9 before heading to Canada?

So, here are some questions for you folks on the West Coast:

(1) What is the snowpack likely to be like in Section F in mid to late April?
(2) Is the snowpack in Southern California as deep as it seems, or has a lot of this moisture fallen as rain? Sure looks deep on the Mountain High webcams.
(3) What is the chance Northern Oregon and Washington will be one big forest fire come August?
(4) When would be a reasonable Manning departure date this year? I figure before June.

Come on locals, give me your gut feeling–obviously that’s all one can ask for right now.

Class of '05…anyone thought seriously about this yet?

Hans Berg

#2

We’re planning a May 7th nobo start, but I’m starting to waver. I hate the idea of delaying the start of the trip, but there’s no overwhelming reason why we couldn’t.

You’ve really taken the questions right out of my mouth: Can we get through the San Jacintos? If we did go sobo, when would we start? How do we cope with the desert in fall?

And I didn’t even think about forest fires. Oh golly.

I’m not too keen on doing the trail piecemeal, though I agree knocking off the worst of the desert in early spring makes some sense.

Decisions, decisions…

Eric

#3

I think the issue of fires in the NW is the prime one. SoCal and the Sierra can be handled. But, I was up at Hurricane Ridge this weekend (granted, not near the PCT) in the Olympics and there was only patchy snow. Two weekends ago in Rainier I had about a foot of snow at 4500 ft. It was gone at about 3800 ft. I think the possibility for serious fires during the summer is more than usual, but nothing can be determined until the spring and summer get here. If there are periodic rains during the summer, there won’t be a problem.

On the other hand, if it is a dry summer, the Cascades are going to burn hard.

Still, I would not be planning on SOBO hike at this point. Besides, a SOBO hiker is going to have to face wild fires in SoCal. Personally, if I was going to do a SOBO hike, I would wait until, say, May 1 or so to pull the trigger on it. Then, be out on the trail heading south on June 1, or get on a plane and head north May 10.

Suge

#4

We hiked sobo in 2002 and loved it… we did 1000 miles ,We did a thru in 96 nobo and would head south again, for sure. We started in mid july and still saw alot of snow,Don’t let the lower elevations fool you. I was just in Wash and there is quite a bit of the white stuff up high and it was a slow go… for about 10 days or so with glacier being fairly dangerous. I loved having the trail to ourselves with few folks out… we did hook up with 3 people… that was it !.. but if a group of you go you will have a blast and alot of wild space to yourselves…

yappy

#5

Right now I’m planning a fairly early nobo in mid April. I’ll take snow over heat,drought,fires anyday. Like Suge says, most likely the snow is manageable. Plus great water, flowers, lower temps. Then if the current trend continues in the NW, flipping to Manning and heading south, or Cascade Locks heading North, or Ashland heading North in mid to late May. But like Suge says about waiting until May to pull the trigger, I won’t know until I’m out of the desert anyway.

gruel

#6

Gruel, I hope you’ll report in from time to time for the folks behind you! Actually, what I really hope is that you’ll bring a shovel and clear the trail ahead of us, but maybe that’s a bit much to ask. Maybe for a king-size snickers?

I wonder if the PCTA could tolerate a last minute permit-flip? And I’ve read that the Canadian border issues aren’t so well worked out Sobo. Anyone know?

Eric

#7

Yeah, it’s hard for me to think of passing up the hike in Southern California with all the moisture this year helping the flowers and springs.

I suppose the snow down south will be restricted to some relatively short sections around San Jacinto, Big Bear, and Wrightwood, but warm weather could make for some REAL rough travel over it (no night freeze possibly). I’ve done enough postholing in my life to know that would be a frustrating start to the journey.

I agree the main concern is fires in the NW and of course there is no way to predict that at this point. It is worth noting that the summer forecast predicts higher than average temps across the entire West Coast and below average precip in spots (mostly Northern California). That’s not reassuring. Of course, one could also flip a coin when predicting that far out. I suppose “normal” rainfall in Washington could keep the fires at bay.

Good point also about fire season down South. I hadn’t thought about how all the rain will produce fuel until Donna mentioned it recently on pct-l.

Lot’s of Pro’s/Con’s, however I certainly am considering it. Check out mthigh.com, great picture of the trail today with a HUGE wind lip.

Hans Berg

#8

Well the bad news is at record levels here in LA. Mt Baldy has set a record and its a sister mt to Baden Powell…San Jacinto has tons of new snow as does all our ski resorts…It is still a little early and we can get real hot weather down in section a/b BUT i don’t know.The fires will be a great risk both here in oct/nov for a s/b as well as cass on a n/b i see a lot of flipping around may be the way to go this year.

Meadow Ed

#9

We drove to Manning in 2oo2 and got our permit at the border crossing believe it not… !..It was a little confusing but worked out great…

yappy

#10

how does one go about looking at the pct-l list?? i have heard alot of people talking about it, but i dont know how to access it or where to go to find it.

thanks for your help.

have a stupendous day!!

orion

orion

#11

go here: http://mailman.backcountry.net/pipermail/pct-l/

yogi

www.pcthandbook.com

yogi

#12

Another thing to consider if going SOBO early in the season is blowdowns. Some of the first NOBO’s to reach Oregon/Washington each year have to fight with blowdowns that have not yet been cleared by trail crews. Maybe not as big a problem this year since it’s been a mild winter, but another factor to consider.

Padre

“My feets is my only carriage” B. Marley

Padre

#13

Like a lot of the rest of the class of 2005, I have been keeping an eye on the snow levels. I’m set on starting at Kickoff, already have the plane ticket. I think the snow levels down south will be manageable like Suge said, the sections aren’t all that long. I think the biggest thing is to keep my options open. I’m definately open to the idea of flipping from KM, or just skipping ahead.

I wouldn’t think that crossing from Canada into the States would be such a big deal if you are a US citizen. Crossing into Canada on a bus, you’re just another tourist, you go to Manning and hike south back into the US. For non citizens, I suppose there would be complications.

It is too early to tell and I think the thing to do is hike nobo and be open to changing your hike plans. Don’t seal up any mail drops!

Doodlebug

#14

Its an unusual year for the PCT. I would start around Mojave in early April,get some heat sections done. Then if there were sections,like Mt Baden Powell,some of the San Bernadinos still early Sierra-like deep,flipflop down towards Campo. Then, you could choose some compatiable hikers to hike with for awhile from the NOBO hikers you have met. No doubt,the NW will be extremely dry and all the more need for trail angels. Not as dire as in S.CA,but still,despite a number of trailside water sources in OR,they are kinda nasty. It makes alot more sense to start in early April around Mojave,get the arid sections done while its about 10-15 degrees cooler,then go down to Campo. Also, its ok to hike into CA in early October,something that was common before the Jardine Revolution. However you chose to navigate and strategize your logistics,enjoy this great year. Those wildflowers down S are/will be great and the only possibility might be “officially” closed Northern sections due to fire hazards in August/september. Happy trails, Mike

mike

#15

Hey Mike, now there’s a possibility. I think I might check that out.
Thanks

gruel

#16

Like the rest of you, I’ve been watching this closely, especially in the past week. It looks to me that the Southern Sierra, while still above normal, has not been hammered as hard as the mountains further south. A lot can still happen, but I would prefer to do a continuous NOBO hike if possible. In order to make that happen, I am likely to push my start date back to around May 10. I’ll still go to the KO Party, maybe even hike the first 20 or 30 miles that weekend - then head home for 2-3weeks. A LOT of snow can melt in 2-3 weeks in May and June. I won’t hurry through SoCal - and probably leave KM around June 20 or so. I’ll take my chances with fires in OR and WA. I think I’d rather detour or do a small skip if necessary than do major flip-flops. This all assumes we stay about like now - 150 percent of normal snow in the Sierras, and a snow melt that starts roughly around April 1. Major deviations from that will probably alter my plans. If you were inclined to do a SOBO hike, its hard to imagine better conditions for it than this year.

Lobo

#17

I always liked the idea of a SOBO.

I also believe that the crux of this year for a NOBO is the S.CA. Beside all the snow, a NOBO willl have to deal with a lot of washed out areas, landslides, and massive amounts of blown down bettle eaten trees.

Nathan

#18

I really, really doubt that SoCal snow is going to be much of an issue, except for the San Jacinto area. This is the only place that has some consistent exposure, as the trail was blasted in to the side of various mountains. Snow melts quick. Rather than 2 or 3 weeks, try 2 or 3 days to see significant melt. There will probably be washed out trail this year. Bring a compass and have some idea of where you are. I really think that people are getting more worked up than is healthy. It might just be pre-trip jitters.

Personally, I would still leave in early May, the same I would leave during a normal year. Go to the KOP and then sit around for a while. Start around May 5 or May 10. Spend 40 days hiking to Kennedy Meadows (you’ll do it in less, probably). Tackle the Sierra snow then.

As noted by several people, a SOBO hike is going to swap what might be a spectacular year for wildflowers in SoCal, and replace it with racing through the desert trying to avoid wildfires. I don’t think the snow is much to worry about right now.

Suge

#19

It seems that few of the southbound hikers finish the PCT the year they start. Frankly I think it is because the southern part of the trail is pretty anticlimactic. Starting out heading north in the desert you have the wildflowers to provide interest, but ending your hike in the desert you have no water at any of the springs (rainy season is winter) and no wildflowers, just miles of winding trail through the brush. What a letdown.

Also, if you want to subscribe to PCT-L (not just read it) go to www.backcountry.net

Spirit Walker

#20

Regarding a sobo hike SOMEONE has to find out about the reroute out of Sthekin/Stevens Pass, it was well marked last year for nobos but my ? is will a hiker going south in early june find his way through…I think if your serious about doing it call the NPS in Sthekin to see if the route is doable…A few years ago a female hiker started sobo, got to Sthekin, left for Campo, and powerhiked back nobo AND still made it…THIS my friends is not going to be a typical year on the PCT…so plan ahead and think smart and ask ?s…

meadow ed